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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.