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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."